Quarterly growth remains positive, but the pace has eased after a strong first quarter

Recent dynamics

Brazil's seasonally adjusted GDP index rose through 2024 and 2025, but the pace of quarterly expansion varied considerably. The index increased from 186.36 in the first quarter of 2024 to 191.40 by the fourth quarter, before rising further to 195.20 at the end of 2025.

Converting the index into quarter-over-quarter growth shows that momentum slowed sharply through 2025. Growth was approximately 1.26% in the first quarter, 0.36% in the second, 0.11% in the third, and 0.25% in the fourth quarter. The pattern therefore shifted from a strong start to much softer sequential growth.

The economy accelerated again in the first quarter of 2026, with the index rising from 195.20 to 197.29, equivalent to roughly 1.07% quarter over quarter. In the second quarter, the index increased further to 198.24, implying growth of about 0.48%. That is consistent with the 0.5% quarterly increase reported by IBGE.

Interpretation and economic signal

The SGS 22109 series is a seasonally adjusted index of GDP at market prices. EconoAtlas converts the index into quarter-over-quarter percentage growth by comparing each observation with the immediately preceding quarter.

Seasonal adjustment is essential for this comparison because economic activity follows recurring calendar patterns across the year. Removing those effects makes consecutive quarters more comparable and allows the sequential growth rate to provide a cleaner reading of near-term economic momentum.

The latest result points to continued expansion, but at a slower pace than in the first quarter. This is consistent with a broader moderation in Brazilian activity: growth has not stalled, yet the impulse from the strong start to 2026 has weakened.

Quarter-over-quarter GDP should be read together with year-over-year and four-quarter growth measures. Sequential growth is more sensitive to turning points in the cycle, while annual comparisons provide a more stable view of the economy's broader trajectory.

Broader 2026 context

IBGE reported that GDP expanded 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026 after a 1.1% increase in the first quarter. By mid-year, GDP was 1.9% above the corresponding period of 2025 and also 1.9% higher on a four-quarter accumulated basis.

This combination reinforces the interpretation of a slowing but still positive growth cycle. The economy continues to expand, but sequential momentum has moved closer to a moderate pace after the stronger first-quarter performance.

Conclusion

Brazil's seasonally adjusted GDP increased again in the second quarter of 2026, confirming that the economy remains in expansion. The latest quarter-over-quarter rate of roughly 0.5% is positive, but clearly softer than the growth recorded at the start of the year.

The current signal is therefore one of moderation rather than contraction. Upcoming quarterly readings will show whether growth settles near this more moderate pace or whether lower interest rates and resilient domestic demand generate a renewed acceleration.