Foreign-exchange flows have improved materially in 2026 despite renewed monthly volatility
Recent dynamics
Brazil's contracted foreign-exchange flow was predominantly negative through much of 2025. Large net outflows were recorded in January and March, while April provided a temporary positive offset. The year ended with particularly weak readings, including a US$7.1 billion outflow in November and a US$12.2 billion outflow in December.
The pattern changed markedly at the beginning of 2026. January and February posted net inflows of roughly US$5.1 billion and US$5.4 billion, respectively. March returned to a sizeable outflow, but April recorded a strong US$9.2 billion inflow, followed by additional positive balances in May, June, and July.
August reversed part of that improvement with a net outflow of approximately US$3.9 billion. Even so, the twelve-month cumulative balance remained slightly positive at about US$1.0 billion. More importantly, January-through-August 2026 generated a cumulative inflow of roughly US$15.8 billion, compared with a US$17.1 billion outflow over the same period of 2025.
Interpretation and economic signal
The SGS 11042 series measures the monthly balance of contracted foreign-exchange transactions. It aggregates foreign-currency purchase and sale contracts between commercial banks and the non-financial market and, from 1993 onward, also incorporates the net balance of relevant transactions with institutions abroad.
A positive balance means that contracted purchases of foreign currency by banks exceed contracted sales, consistent with a net inflow of foreign currency through the exchange market. A negative balance means that sales exceed purchases, indicating a net contracted outflow.
The indicator combines commercial and financial channels. Commercial flows are linked primarily to export and import exchange contracts, while financial flows capture a broader set of service, capital, and financial transactions. The headline balance can therefore shift sharply even when Brazil's merchandise trade balance remains strong.
It is also important to distinguish contracted exchange flow from the balance of payments. This series records foreign-exchange contracts when they are agreed, regardless of their settlement date, and excludes interbank contracts as well as Central Bank interventions and the BCB's own external operations.
Exchange-rate implications
Persistent positive foreign-exchange flows can increase the supply of foreign currency to the domestic market and, all else equal, provide support to the Brazilian real. Persistent outflows can work in the opposite direction by increasing demand for foreign currency relative to available inflows.
The relationship is not mechanical, however. Exchange rates also respond to interest-rate differentials, global risk appetite, commodity prices, expectations, derivatives markets, and positioning. The contracted flow is therefore best used as one indicator of underlying FX supply and demand rather than as a standalone predictor of USD/BRL.
Conclusion
Brazil's contracted foreign-exchange flow has improved substantially compared with 2025. The twelve-month balance has moved back into slightly positive territory, while the year-to-date comparison shows a pronounced swing from net outflows to net inflows.
August's renewed outflow shows that the improvement remains volatile rather than linear. The key signal is therefore a much stronger underlying flow backdrop in 2026, but one that still requires confirmation from subsequent months before a persistent positive trend can be established.