From relative stability to a clearer tightening in borrowing costs
The Average Cost of Credit reflects the effective interest rates charged on outstanding credit operations within the financial system. It captures the combined influence of monetary policy conditions, risk perception, financial intermediation spreads, and borrower characteristics.
As a broad measure of borrowing costs faced by households and firms, the indicator plays a central role in assessing the transmission of monetary policy, the tightness of financial conditions, and the overall cost of financing in the economy.
Recent dynamics
The series remained broadly stable throughout 2023 and 2024, fluctuating within a relatively narrow range around the low-22% level. After peaking slightly in mid-2023, credit costs gradually declined into late 2024, reaching their lowest levels at the end of that year.
From early 2025 onwards, however, the trend reversed, with a sustained and progressive increase in borrowing costs throughout the year. By late 2025 and into early 2026, the indicator had risen to levels significantly above those observed in the previous two years, marking a clear tightening in credit conditions.
Interpretation and economic signal
The evolution of the Average Cost of Credit suggests a shift from relatively stable financial conditions to a more restrictive environment. The gradual easing observed between mid-2023 and late 2024 indicates some degree of normalization in borrowing costs, potentially reflecting improved liquidity conditions or declining risk premiums.
The subsequent upward trend in 2025 points to a tightening cycle, driven by higher benchmark rates, increased credit risk, or wider intermediation spreads. Rising credit costs tend to constrain consumption and investment by increasing the cost of financing, thereby acting as a moderating force on economic activity.
As such, the recent trajectory signals a deterioration in financial conditions, with potential implications for domestic demand dynamics.
Conclusion
The recent path of the Average Cost of Credit highlights a transition from stability to tightening financial conditions. After a period of relative equilibrium through 2023 and 2024, borrowing costs increased consistently in 2025 and remained elevated into early 2026.
This pattern suggests that credit conditions have become more restrictive, reinforcing a macroeconomic environment characterized by higher financing costs and reduced support from credit expansion to economic growth.