Growth momentum rebounds in the first quarter of 2026
Quarterly real GDP growth measures the percentage change in seasonally adjusted economic output from one quarter to the next. Because recurring seasonal patterns are removed from the underlying GDP level, the QoQ rate is particularly useful for assessing short-term changes in economic momentum and identifying accelerations or slowdowns in activity.
Recent dynamics
Quarterly growth was relatively strong through much of 2024. Real GDP expanded 0.68% QoQ in the first quarter, accelerated to 1.67% in the second quarter, and remained positive at 0.90% in the third quarter. Momentum then weakened sharply in the fourth quarter, when growth slowed to just 0.09%.
Activity strengthened again at the beginning of 2025, with GDP rising 1.27% QoQ in the first quarter. That improvement was not sustained during the remainder of the year: growth slowed to 0.34% in the second quarter and only 0.10% in the third quarter, before improving modestly to 0.26% in the fourth quarter.
The first quarter of 2026 marked a significant change in short-term momentum. Real GDP expanded 1.10% QoQ, up 0.84 percentage point from the 0.26% recorded in Q4 2025 and the strongest quarterly increase since Q1 2025. The latest rate nevertheless remained 0.17 percentage point below the 1.27% growth recorded in the same quarter one year earlier.
Interpretation and economic signal
The Q1 2026 reading signals a clear rebound in sequential economic activity after the weak growth rates that characterized most of 2025. Three consecutive quarters below 0.35% were followed by a return to growth above 1%, indicating a meaningful improvement in near-term momentum.
At the same time, a single strong quarter is not sufficient to establish a new sustained growth trend. The quarterly series has shown sizable fluctuations since 2024, including sharp accelerations followed by rapid slowdowns. The key question is therefore whether the Q1 2026 rebound persists into subsequent quarters or proves temporary.
From a cyclical perspective, the latest reading provides a more constructive signal than the second half of 2025. Sequential growth has moved decisively away from the near-stagnant rates seen in Q3 and Q4 2025, suggesting that economic activity entered 2026 with stronger momentum.
Conclusion
Brazil’s quarterly GDP trajectory shows a pronounced loss of momentum through most of 2025 followed by a strong rebound in Q1 2026. Growth accelerated from 0.26% QoQ in Q4 2025 to 1.10% in Q1 2026, reversing much of the weakness observed during the previous three quarters.
The current signal is therefore one of renewed short-term growth momentum. Confirmation of a broader acceleration, however, will depend on whether upcoming quarters maintain positive growth at a materially stronger pace than the subdued rates recorded during most of 2025.