From wholesale disinflation to renewed price volatility
The General Price Index-Market (IGP-M) measures monthly price changes across a broad set of economic segments, with a strong weighting toward wholesale prices, alongside consumer and construction components. Due to its sensitivity to commodity prices, exchange rate movements, and upstream cost conditions, the index provides an early signal of price dynamics across production chains and is widely used in contract indexation and cost adjustment mechanisms.
Recent dynamics
The series exhibited a pronounced deflationary pattern throughout most of 2023, with consecutive negative monthly readings concentrated in the second and third quarters, reflecting a broad correction in wholesale prices. This trend reversed toward the end of the year, with a gradual return to positive monthly changes.
In 2024, the index shifted to a more consistent inflationary pattern, with mostly positive readings and an acceleration in the second half of the year, including several months with stronger increases. In 2025, the behavior became more volatile, with alternating positive and negative readings, including renewed deflationary episodes mid-year.
By early 2026, the index continued to display instability, with small positive and negative variations indicating a lack of a clear directional trend.
Interpretation and economic signal
The evolution of the IGP-M reflects the interaction between external price shocks, exchange rate movements, and domestic cost conditions. The deflation observed in 2023 is consistent with a correction in commodity prices and upstream costs following previous periods of elevated price levels. The subsequent increase in 2024 suggests a renewed rise in cost pressures, likely driven by a combination of exchange rate dynamics and global price conditions.
The volatility observed in 2025 and early 2026 indicates an environment of unstable cost formation, where price signals fluctuate without establishing a sustained trend.
From a structural perspective, such volatility in wholesale price indices can affect the coordination of production decisions, as firms face uncertainty regarding input costs and future pricing conditions. Frequent reversals in price movements may reduce the clarity of relative price signals, influencing inventory management, contract adjustments, and investment planning.
In this context, the behavior of the IGP-M suggests a period of adjustment in cost structures, where underlying price dynamics remain sensitive to both external shocks and domestic conditions.
Conclusion
The recent trajectory of the IGP-M highlights a transition from a deflationary phase in 2023 to a more inflationary environment in 2024, followed by increased volatility in 2025 and early 2026. While price pressures have re-emerged at times, the absence of a stable trend suggests that cost dynamics remain unsettled.
In macroeconomic terms, this pattern points to an environment where upstream price signals are still adjusting, with implications for production decisions and the transmission of cost changes across the economy.